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      壹 房地產(chǎn)政策有所放松

      A股和港股周三都探底回升，A股收盤微跌，港股收盤恒生指數(shù)上漲0.74%。周三戲劇性的V型反轉(zhuǎn)主要是由于房地產(chǎn)板塊的崛起。11月9日，中國銀行間市場交易商協(xié)會舉行房企代表座談會，部分房企有計(jì)劃近期在銀行間市場注冊發(fā)行債務(wù)融資工具。這意味著房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)境內(nèi)發(fā)債的相關(guān)政策會有所松動，近期將會有房企在公開市場發(fā)債融資，同時，銀行等機(jī)構(gòu)投資者也會通過債券投資等方式重新為房企“輸血”，防止房企資金鏈進(jìn)一步惡化。盤后有一則有關(guān)按揭額度放松的消息流傳，但隨后被銀行方面否認(rèn)。

      貳 通脹超預(yù)期

      周三北上資金凈流出118億人民幣，為7月26日以來單日凈流出最大金額。7月26日當(dāng)日北上凈流出128億人民幣。北上資金為什么在時隔近4個月后又大幅流出呢？可能是與10月份的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的同比漲幅有關(guān)。10月生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)同比上漲13.5%，為歷史最高水平。但10月以來，隨著國家對煤炭價格的不斷調(diào)控，上游資源類產(chǎn)品價格持續(xù)下跌。我們認(rèn)為10月份PPI同比漲幅很可能就是高點(diǎn)。因此，外資的凈流出很可能是膝跳反射，不具有持續(xù)性。

      叁 流動性邊際改善

      周三收盤發(fā)布的10月份社融和信貸數(shù)據(jù)顯示流動性邊際改善。10月社融增量比去年同期多1970億元，扭轉(zhuǎn)了過去三個月同比下滑的趨勢；同時新增信貸也同比多增1364億元，逆轉(zhuǎn)過去兩個月的下滑趨勢。因?yàn)閷ｍ?xiàng)債發(fā)行和居民中長期貸款的改善，這應(yīng)歸功于730 政治局會議之后一系列的糾偏動作。A股從9月觸及高點(diǎn)以來持續(xù)下跌2個月。未來A股如何走應(yīng)取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑程度和政策出臺力度二者的合力。

      肆 美國通脹超預(yù)期

      美國10月消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)（CPI）創(chuàng)出30年新高。10月CPI同比上漲6.2%，超市場預(yù)期?？鄢茉春褪称返暮诵腃PI上漲6.2%，為1990年11月以來的最高月度漲幅。燃料油、能源、二手車價格都大幅上漲，推動了消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)的上漲。超預(yù)期的通脹意味著美聯(lián)儲加息的步伐可能要快于市場預(yù)期。目前市場預(yù)計(jì)明年將會有兩次加息，有44%的概率加息三次。高于預(yù)期的CPI促使美股回落，科技股全面下跌，黃金價格上漲，國債收益率上漲。同時，上周美國申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)也降低到了疫情發(fā)生以來的最低水平，顯示美國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)在復(fù)蘇。

I.Property sector rallied 

Both A-share and HK stocks made a U-turn on Wednesday. At closing A-share fell just slightly from Tuesday’s closing prices while Hang Seng Index rose 0.74%. The property sector’s rally contributed to the U-turn. A couple of good news pushed the sector higher. National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors convened a meeting of property developers on November 9th, 2021. It was reported that some national property developers owned by central government were allowed to issue debt in interbank market and banks would buy bonds of property developers again. These measures would prevent property developers from capital strain rupture. 

II. Liquidity was easing to some extent

Moreover, the aggregate social financing (ASF) in October showed that liquidity was easing to some extent. ASF in October increased by RMB 197 billion year-on-year (yoy), reversing the down trend over the last three months. Also new loans increased by RMB 136.4 billion, reversing the down trend over the last two months. The liquidity expansion should be owed to the increased special project debt issuance and the residents’ medium- to long-term loans increase. These changes came after July 30th Politburo meeting. 

III. PPI grew higher than expected

North-bound capital saw the largest daily outflow at RMB11.8 billion, only lower than that on July 26th which saw net outflow of RMB 12.8 billion. The outflow of north-bound capital was triggered by October Producer price index (PPI),which rose 13.5% year-on-year and was the largest monthly increase in history. We believe that PPI should peak in October as government has taken various measures to control coal prices since October. The coal prices halved from its peak level. As such north-bound capital would come back later. A-share has corrected for two months since mid-September. How it performs in the future would be determined by policies and economic trend.

IV. The inflation in the US 

The US October consumer price index rose 6.2% yoy. It was the largest monthly increase yoy from Nov. 1990. The US stocks fell and tech stocks crashed. Gold prices rallied and treasury yield rose as well. Currently market has priced in two interest rate hikes in 2022.

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 A股3季報(bào)利潤率下滑

      A股2021年3季報(bào)截止2021年10月底全部披露完成。2021年3季度全部A股歸母凈利潤同比增速為25.73%，較2021年上半年下降18.34個百分點(diǎn)。整體銷售凈利率為5.78%，較2021年上半年下跌0.18個百分點(diǎn)；銷售毛利率為17.87%，較2021年上半年下跌0.34個百分點(diǎn)。3季度毛利率和凈利率下跌一方面是因?yàn)樯嫌卧牧蟽r格上漲，另一方面也反應(yīng)需求疲弱。

      貳 美股3季報(bào)利潤率提升

      同樣是面對原材料價格上漲和供應(yīng)鏈干擾導(dǎo)致零部件短缺的問題，美股表現(xiàn)截然不同。根據(jù)富國銀行，美股3季度盈利較2季度環(huán)比上漲5.3%，標(biāo)普500稅前利潤率從2季度的18.1%上漲到18.3%。

      叁 中國上市企業(yè)規(guī)模較小

      A股和美股的表現(xiàn)截然不同，背后反應(yīng)的是規(guī)模效應(yīng)及產(chǎn)業(yè)地位導(dǎo)致的價格傳導(dǎo)能力不同。截止2021年10月，A股滬深兩市上市公司數(shù)量為4537家，總市值為86.7萬億人民幣，平均一家上市公司的市值為191億人民幣。美股截止2021年10月份上市公司數(shù)量接近5700家，總市值接近50萬億美金，平均一家上市公司的市值為88億美金，566億人民幣。也即美國上市公司的平均規(guī)模接近中國公司的3倍。公司規(guī)模較大，意味著具有較強(qiáng)的定價能力。比如我國的半導(dǎo)體企業(yè)毛利率為30%左右，而美國半導(dǎo)體企業(yè)的毛利率在60%以上。一方面是我國半導(dǎo)體企業(yè)產(chǎn)品技術(shù)含量相對較低，另一方面也因?yàn)槲覈髽I(yè)規(guī)模較小。

      肆 微笑曲線

      另一方面，美國公司多處在微笑曲線的兩端，如麥當(dāng)勞掌握品牌，授權(quán)其他加盟商經(jīng)營；可口可樂也是品牌授權(quán)給瓶裝商；蘋果主要搞研發(fā)設(shè)計(jì)和品牌運(yùn)營，而加工制造則全部外包。因此，美國上市公司的利潤率遠(yuǎn)高于處在微笑曲線底部的制造業(yè)公司。而我國的上市公司以制造業(yè)公司為主，這也意味著他們的定價能力和成本傳導(dǎo)能力都較弱。我國未來要做制造業(yè)強(qiáng)國，一方面要擴(kuò)大企業(yè)規(guī)模，另一方面也要提升技術(shù)水平，爭取向微笑曲線兩端移動。即使處在微笑曲線底部，也要通過技術(shù)創(chuàng)新爭取獲得較高的利潤率。

      伍 美股收跌

      A股和港股微漲。受到央行釋放流動性刺激，有色金屬板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先。發(fā)改委和工信部發(fā)布《關(guān)于實(shí)施原料藥產(chǎn)業(yè)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展規(guī)劃的通知》，推動醫(yī)藥板塊上漲。美股從高位滑落，市場等待周三發(fā)布10月消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)。

I. Profit margin contracted in 3Q2021 in A-share 

A-share released its 3Q2021 earnings results by the end of October.The net profit of all A-share companies grew 25.73% year-on-year in 3Q2021, down by 18.34 percentage point (ppt) from 1H2021. The overall net profit margin was 5.78% in 3Q2021, down 0.18 ppt from 1H2021. The gross profit margin was 17.87%,down 0.34 ppt from 1H2021. The profit margin contraction was both due to rising raw material costs and lackluster demand. 

II. The US companies saw profit margin expansion in 3Q2021 

While also faced with high-flying input costs the US listed companies performed differently from Chinese companies in 3Q2021. According to Wells Fargo,the net profit of the US listed companies grew 5.3% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q2021. The pretax margin in 3Q2021 was 18.3% versus 18.1% in 2Q2021. 

III. The US companies are bigger 

The US companies were able to expand their profit margin because they are bigger than Chinese counterparts and they are on the two sides of the so-called smile curve. By October 2021 the average market cap of the listed companies in A-share was RMB 191 million versus 566 million in the US, i.e., the average US listed company is three times of the Chinese listed company. The bigger the company,the higher the pricing power and bargaining capabilities are. 

IV. Smile curve 

Moreover, the US companies are usually at the two ends of a smile curve. They either license their brands or focus on design and brand operation and outsource manufacturing.The two ends of a smile curve enjoy higher profit margin than manufacturing,which is at the bottom of the smile curve. As a result, the US companies have higher profit margin than Chinese companies. The 3Q2021 earnings tells us that Chinese companies still need to work hard to get to the two ends of a smile curve.

V. The US stocks fell 

Both A-share and HK stocks rose boosted by the liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China.Non-ferrous metal rose the most. Medicine sectors got boosted from government supporting measures. The US stocks fell from record. Market is waiting for the key October Consumer Price Index, which would be released on Wednesday. 

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 股市泡沫危害更大

      資產(chǎn)泡沫在歷史上從不曾缺席。歐洲早期的三大泡沫--英國南海公司泡沫、法國密西西比股市泡沫和荷蘭郁金香泡沫以及2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫等都在歷史上產(chǎn)生過深遠(yuǎn)的影響。相對而言，商品泡沫中受影響的投資人范圍較小，其對經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的程度較?。欢墒信菽ǔＩ婕暗娜巳狠^廣，價值毀滅的程度更深更廣，一般來說股市泡沫破滅通常伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的發(fā)生。

      貳 郁金香泡沫

      以歐洲早期三大泡沫為例，荷蘭的郁金香熱是最早的非理性資產(chǎn)泡沫實(shí)例之一。在1635年之前，郁金香球莖的價格已經(jīng)持續(xù)上漲了很多年。1635到1636年，荷蘭郁金香合同上漲幅度是5900%。1637年5月暴跌99%。和泡沫通常的情況一樣，郁金香狂熱吞噬了荷蘭廣泛的人群。在鼎盛時期，一些郁金香球莖的價格一度超過了一套豪華住宅的價格。

      叁 南海公司泡沫

      南海公司成立于1711年，英國政府承諾其壟斷與南美西班牙殖民地的所有貿(mào)易。投資者預(yù)計(jì)東印度公司的成功會重演，搶購南海公司的股票。隨著董事會們在南海（現(xiàn)在的南美）大肆宣揚(yáng)難以想象的財(cái)富，公司的股票在1720年上半年上漲了約8倍，從1月的128鎊上漲至6月的1050鎊。隨后幾個月暴跌，引發(fā)了一場嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。

      肆 密西西比股市泡沫

      而法國密西西比股市泡沫是最具現(xiàn)代特點(diǎn)的泡沫。這個泡沫的始作俑者是約翰·勞。他認(rèn)為在就業(yè)不足的情況下，增加貨幣供給可以在不提高物價水平的前提下增加就業(yè)機(jī)會并增加國民產(chǎn)出。一旦產(chǎn)出增加之后，對貨幣的需求也會相應(yīng)跟上來。在實(shí)現(xiàn)了充分就業(yè)之后，貨幣擴(kuò)張能夠吸引外部資源，進(jìn)一步增加產(chǎn)出。約翰勞將其理論付諸實(shí)踐，成功地將其所擁有的印度公司的股票成為法國貨幣發(fā)行的抵押品。但是，大量貨幣發(fā)行導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹，而印度公司的股票價格也隨之暴跌。泡沫的歷史再次印證了黑格爾所說：人類從歷史中得到的唯一教訓(xùn)就是從不曾從歷史中學(xué)到任何教訓(xùn)。

      伍 港股續(xù)跌，美股續(xù)漲

      A股上漲，港股下跌。周期股表現(xiàn)領(lǐng)先。受到輝瑞新冠特效藥消息影響，航空股、博彩股表現(xiàn)出色，而醫(yī)藥股表現(xiàn)低迷。中國人民銀行推出利率為1.75%額度估計(jì)在1萬億人民幣的碳減排支持工具，有利于提高市場總體流動性。美股受到1萬億美金基建計(jì)劃的消息刺激繼續(xù)上漲，卡特彼勒、約翰迪爾等基建股表現(xiàn)領(lǐng)先。

I. Stock bubbles are more dangerous 

Asset bubbles happened from time to time in history. Some asset bubbles are very famous such as the three bubbles in earlier Europe and the internet bubbles in 2000. Less people are affected in commodity bubbles than in stock bubbles. The latter usually would evolve into economic crises. 

II. Tulip bulb bubble

Take the example of the three bubbles in earlier Europe. The tulip bulb bubble is the earliest one. The prices of tulip bulb rose for many years before 1635. But the contract of tulip bulb rallied 5900% from 1635 to 1636. But in May 1637 it fell 99%. The mania of tulip bulb was so out of rage that at one time a tulip bulb cost a mansion. 

III. The British South Sea Company 

The British South Sea Company was set up in 1711 and got monopoly of the British trade with South America. Investors thought that this company would replicate the success of East India Company and poured their money into this company’s stock. The stock rose 8 times in 1H1720 but fell sharply in 2H1720. This caused an economic crisis in the UK. 

IV. Mississippi Bubble

The France Mississippi Stock Bubble happened due to John Law. He considered that increasing money supply would improve employment without causing inflation when economy was in subemployment. And when employment improves output would increase and so do demand for money  supply. When economy is in full employment investment would come back and output would increase further. He then succeeded in issuing money in France on the base of his company’s stock. But contrary to Law’s theory the massive moneysupply caused serious inflation. His company’s stock price fell sharply. The bubbles in history tell us a simple lesson: the only lesson that human learned from history is that they never learn any lessons.

V. The US stocks continued to rise 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Non-ferrous metal rose the most while medicine stocks fell the most due to the COVID-19 drug invented by Pfizer. The People’s Bank of China would issue carbon-emission support facility at 1.75% with an estimated amount of RMB 1 trillion. The US stocks continued to rise due to the infrastructure bill passed over the weekend. Infrastructure stocks rallied such as John Deere and Caterpillar.

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 長期利率下降

      著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家辜鴻銘在《大衰退—宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的圣杯》中指出：企業(yè)陷入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退時，需用資金還債。長此以往，企業(yè)對債務(wù)產(chǎn)生厭惡，會患上“債務(wù)抵觸綜合證”。這意味著即使企業(yè)已經(jīng)償還了債務(wù)，也不會去借債。當(dāng)企業(yè)用原本還債的資金進(jìn)行投資時，需求回升了，但是因?yàn)榻鑲枨蟛蛔?，所以利率下降。這就造成名義國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增速超過長期利率。

      貳 下降趨勢持續(xù)很長時間

      美國曾經(jīng)在1929年大蕭條之后和2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后出現(xiàn)過這種現(xiàn)象。而一旦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增速超過長期利率，則需要很長的時間才能逆轉(zhuǎn)這種關(guān)系。以美國1929年經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條為例，直到1959年長期利率才回到大蕭條之前的水平，也就是花費(fèi)了整整30年的時間。日本在上世紀(jì)90年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之后，也面臨長期利率持續(xù)低迷的狀況。

      叁 量寬并不是好對策

      辜鴻銘指出當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退時，采用單純的量化寬松政策是錯誤的應(yīng)對方法。他舉例子說明：如果一個病人服藥病沒好，就把藥量增加10倍，那病也不會好。從日本的情況看，無論是量化寬松1、2還是安倍的三支箭都沒有給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來實(shí)質(zhì)的改善。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增速持續(xù)處在低位，長期利率也持續(xù)下行，30年國債收益率近幾年已經(jīng)下降到1以下，處在歷史最低水平。辜鴻銘認(rèn)為應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退應(yīng)采用積極的財(cái)政政策，亦即當(dāng)企業(yè)縮小債務(wù)規(guī)模的同時，政府必需擴(kuò)大債務(wù)規(guī)模。這其實(shí)和達(dá)利奧所說的寬松去杠桿是一致的。

      肆 我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍會相對較高

      當(dāng)前，我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)類似資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退：一方面償還債務(wù)，一方面對土地拍賣不積極。從日本和美國的經(jīng)歷可推斷，我國長期利率可能會就此下行，且下行較長時間。但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)和美日相比具有較強(qiáng)的韌性，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍然能夠保持在相對較高的水平。同時，我國在貨幣政策方面一直非?？酥?，而是在財(cái)政政策方面發(fā)力。這種應(yīng)對措施有助于企業(yè)修復(fù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

      伍 上周周期領(lǐng)跌

      A股和港股上周繼續(xù)下跌，在全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)落后。休閑服務(wù)、鋼鐵、采掘和化工跌幅居前。美政府推出1萬億美金的基建刺激計(jì)劃，10年期美國國債收益率下行。10月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，美股連續(xù)7個交易日上漲。

I. Long-term interest rate goes down 

In his famous book “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomic Lessons from Japan Great Recession” Richard Koo pointed out that when enterprises are in balance sheet recession, they would use all of their free money to pay back debt and would become reluctant to borrow money in the long run. Once enterprises pay back debt, they would use the free money to invest and GDP would go up with demand coming back. But long-term interest rate would come down as demand for loans would still be maintained at low levels. 

II. The down trend would go for a long time 

As a result, GDP growth rate would be higher than long-term interest rate. This happened in the US in the Great Depression in 1929 and internet bubbles in 2000. Take the example of the Great Depression long-term interest rate did not come back to pre-depression levels until 1959, i.e., it took 30 years to reverse the down trend of interest rate. Japan was also faced with low interest rate from the depression in the 1990s. 

III. Fiscal policy is the right way

Richard considered active fiscal policy as the right way to deal with balance sheet recession rather than quantitative easing. What happened in Japan illustrated that whether quantitative easing one, two or the three arrows of Abe did not improve economy substantially. Japan’s economy has been at low growth rate for years. So is long-term interest rate.

IV. A different recession

China’s property sector is at similar situation of balance sheet recession. While long-term interest rate would go down China’s GDP growth rate would be at relatively high-levels compared with the developed nations. Moreover, China adopts active fiscal policy to stimulate economy, which as mentioned above is the right way to help businesses to repair their balance sheets and stimulate demand.

V. Cyclical sectors fell the most

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week and lagged behind the sixteen global major indexes. The cyclical sectors fell the most while fishery and farming,electronics and telecommunication sector rose the most. The US infrastructure bill valued at US$ 1 trillion passed in the congress and the 10-year treasury yield came down. The non-farm payroll data in October came in better than expected. The US stocks rose for 7 trading days in a row.  

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 看得見的手

      小艾爾弗雷德·錢德勒在其著名的《看得見的手》中指出：管理協(xié)調(diào)這只“看得見的手”，相比市場協(xié)調(diào)這只“看不見的手”而言，能夠帶來巨大的生產(chǎn)力和豐厚的利潤，能夠提高資本的競爭力，管理的變革會引發(fā)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的顯著提高。這也就是錢德勒所謂的“企業(yè)的管理革命”。

      貳 技術(shù)促進(jìn)企業(yè)管理演變

      錢德勒認(rèn)為斯普林菲爾德兵工廠是19世紀(jì)30年代具有現(xiàn)代工廠管理形式的少數(shù)企業(yè)。該兵工廠通過周密的檢查和會計(jì)核算保證其內(nèi)部100多個專業(yè)工種可以高效生產(chǎn)槍支?，F(xiàn)代工廠管理并不是現(xiàn)代企業(yè)管理。真正的現(xiàn)代企業(yè)管理是伴隨著鐵路和電報(bào)的出現(xiàn)而出現(xiàn)的。這些行業(yè)大量雇傭?qū)Ｂ毥?jīng)理人員來協(xié)調(diào)、管理和評估分散在各地的營業(yè)單位的工作。這種伴隨科技進(jìn)步而提升的組織能力又進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)了財(cái)富的創(chuàng)造。

      叁 高科技行業(yè)中的企業(yè)管理

      錢德勒在高技術(shù)行業(yè)的研究中，錢德勒將“組織能力”概念進(jìn)一步深化，強(qiáng)調(diào)基于三種知識類型—技術(shù)、功能和管理的組織能力。在錢德勒的語境中，現(xiàn)代企業(yè)的成功越來越多地依靠以技術(shù)和功能為基礎(chǔ)的“綜合學(xué)習(xí)能力”，這并非說管理變得不再重要，而是在分部制管理結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)理人地位確立后，管理不再是企業(yè)進(jìn)行競爭的一個主要變量。在錢德勒看來，當(dāng)代高科技企業(yè)的發(fā)展在于綜合學(xué)習(xí)能力的獲得和維持。獲得了綜合學(xué)習(xí)能力，企業(yè)就能在市場競爭中獲勝，否則就會被淘汰。

      肆 元宇宙和企業(yè)管理

      最近火爆的元宇宙其實(shí)在一定意義上也是現(xiàn)代企業(yè)管理制度伴隨科技進(jìn)步而做出的演變，以虛實(shí)融合的方式改變現(xiàn)有社會的組織與運(yùn)作。雖然每次科技進(jìn)步所帶來的改變都不能準(zhǔn)確遇見，但是未來公司的組織方式將會超越空間的限制是元宇宙能夠帶來的確定的變化。這種變化會對公司運(yùn)作產(chǎn)生那些深刻的影響呢？臉書和微軟等全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)龍頭以及英偉達(dá)等高科技企業(yè)在元宇宙方面的努力推進(jìn)也許會讓我們更早地看到結(jié)果。

      伍 股市上漲

      A股和港股均上漲，但量能并未有效放大。A股食品、調(diào)味料等消費(fèi)品板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先，受到產(chǎn)品調(diào)價的消息的刺激。英格蘭銀行維持利率在低水平，歐洲股市上漲。美股連續(xù)第六個交易日上漲。歐佩克決議保持當(dāng)前原油產(chǎn)出水平，油價上漲。

I. The visible hand 

Alfred Chandler pointed out in his famous book --“The visible hand” that enterprise management and coordination can improve productivity,create big fortune and increase competitive advantages of capital invested. As market mechanism is called “the invisible hand”, Chandler called enterprise management and coordination "the visible hand". 

II. Modern enterprise management 

Modern factory management rooted in Springfield Arms Factory, which introduced check system and accounting to ensure more than 100 specialized workers to produce arms efficiently. The modern factory management does not equal to modern enterprise management, which came when railway and telegraph came into use. Companies in these two sectors hired professionals to coordinate, manage and evaluate many branches located in different places in the US. The capabilities of organization that come along with technology improvement help create social fortune. 

III. Enterprise management in high-tech sectors

Chandler also studied the capabilities oforganization in high-tech sectors and concluded that the capabilities of organization in technology, function and management make difference for high-tech companies. Recently metaverse has become hot worldwide. Metaverse can be seen as social organization evolves with technology combining real and virtual world together. 

IV. Metaverse 

Every new technology would make the world change profoundly, which can not be foreseen at the beginning. With internet giants such as Meta and Microsoft and technology pioneer like Nvidia devoting into metaverse, we might soon see the big change at work and in our daily life.

V. Stocks rose  

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Food and beverage sector led the rally boosted by the news of various product price increase.The Bank of England maintained interest rate at the current low level. The US stocks rose for six days in a row. OPEC maintained current output plan and oil prices rose.

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 11月上漲概率大

      A股市場十月份下跌后，11月份也延續(xù)下跌態(tài)勢。上證指數(shù)11月三個交易日下跌了1.4%。在余下的兩個月時間里，A股是漲還是跌呢？我們統(tǒng)計(jì)了A股從1990年至今的走勢。以上證指數(shù)為例：從1990年至今31年間，11月A股上漲的年份為17個，下跌的年份為14個。所以，11月A股上漲的概率還是大于下跌的概率。

      貳 牛市會暴漲

      其中漲幅超過10%的年份分別是1991年、1992年、1993年、2006年和2014年。1991年到1993年是中國證券市場的初期，市場暴漲暴跌是個常態(tài)，月度漲跌幅都較大。2006年處于牛市中，當(dāng)年上證指數(shù)上漲了130%。2014年是牛市啟動的年份，當(dāng)年11月港股通開通，外資開始大規(guī)模流入A股市場。下跌超過10%的年份是1995年和2007年。1995年全年上證指數(shù)下跌14.3%，主要應(yīng)是受到亞洲金融危機(jī)的影響。從2007年10月，受到次貸危機(jī)的影響，全球股市從牛市轉(zhuǎn)為熊市。

      叁 12月表現(xiàn)不如11月

      從1991年以來，12月份上漲的年份14個，下跌的年份16個。因此，12月份總體表現(xiàn)不如11月份。其中1991年、2006年、2012年和2014年月度漲幅超過10%。1991年、2006年和2014年上漲的原因與11月份是一樣的。2012年12月前上證指數(shù)持續(xù)下跌，但到了12月份因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期，同時中央經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)召開，市場對政策預(yù)期等因素導(dǎo)致市場情緒逆轉(zhuǎn)。12月份上證指數(shù)跌幅超過10%的年份分別在1993年、1995年和1996年。1993年應(yīng)還是因?yàn)槭袌龀跗诘谋q暴跌。1995到1996年應(yīng)是受到亞洲金融危機(jī)的影響。

      肆 暴漲暴跌概率低

      從歷史推斷，今年11月發(fā)生較大跌幅的概率不高，同樣12月份大漲大跌的概率也較小。但不能排除外部風(fēng)險對A股的沖擊，如1995-96年和2007年。另外政策如果超預(yù)期也會引發(fā)市場上漲，如2012年。

      伍 美聯(lián)儲如期開啟債券縮減

      A股和港股均探底回升，小幅收跌。A股新能源板塊受到某光伏企業(yè)的負(fù)面消息影響而調(diào)整。恒生指數(shù)七連跌，接近10月初創(chuàng)下的年初以來低點(diǎn)。無論A股還是港股都明顯縮量，調(diào)整應(yīng)接近尾聲。美聯(lián)儲宣布11月份開始縮減債券購買計(jì)劃，同時強(qiáng)調(diào)現(xiàn)在不考慮加息。美股持續(xù)上漲。從1950年至今，有8個年份美股從年初到10月份上漲超過20%之后，11月和12月都繼續(xù)上漲，平均上漲幅度6.2%。

I. Stocks performed better in November than in December 

In 31 years from 1990 when China set up its stock exchanges, Shanghai Composite Index (SCOMP) rose in November in 17 years and fell in in November in 14 years. SCOMP rose in December in 14 years and fell in December in 16 years.In a word, stocks in China performed better in November than in December. 

II. Stocks are likely to rise in November in bull years

There are five years when SCOMP rose more than 10%, which are 1991, 1992, 1993, 2006 and 2014. The market was very volatile at the beginning, which were the reasons behind more than 10% rally in November 1992-1993. A-share was in a bull market, which was the reason why SCOMP rose more than 10% in 2006. In November 2014 Shanghai-connect began and international investors poured money into A-share. 

III. Stocks crashed when hit by outside shocks

There were only two years that saw stocks fall more than 10% in November, which were 1995 and 2007.In 1995 Asian Financial Crises began and the subprime crises began to spread in 4Q2007. For December there are 4 years that saw stocks rise more than 10%,which are 1991, 2006, 2012 and 2014. The rally in 1991, 2006 and 2014 are the same as with November. In 2012 the broad market continued to fall before December. And due to that economic data came in better than expected and market expectation of policy support market sentiment turned positive. 

IV. This year there might be no rally or crash 

From history we judge that it would be hard for A-share to rally or crash in the rest two months of this year. But there are possibilities of outside shocks, which mightcause market to crash or more policy support, which can support market rally.  

V. Taper comes 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell on contracted volume. Hang Seng Index fell for seven trading days in a row.  The Federal Reserve announced taper as expected. The US stocks continued to rise. In the eight periods since 1950 where stocks were up more than 20% through October, as they are this year, the S&P 500 tacked on additional gains by year end 100% of the time with an average gain of 6.2%.ADP report showed that October private job creation was the best month since June.

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。